Mixed bag: UK retail hits 4-year high but consumer confidence proves jittery

Two respected measures of the UK’s economy have presented a mixed view of the economy, at a time when the cycle trade – among many others – are looking for positive signs.

Today’s retail numbers from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) have revealed monthly sales volumes rose for a third consecutive month in March 2025. March sales rose 0.3%, giving Q1 2025 a total rise of 1.6% – the largest three-monthly rise since July 2021. That sustained rise, rather than a one-off outlier of a month, may well be seen as a solid marker for optimism.

Non-food stores sales volumes rose 1.7% over March, with retailers noting the improved weather boosting sales. Non-store retailing sales volumes were also up, with online retailers also noting the effect of sunshine. Specific sales data from the bike trade are rarely speedily published, although trade readers will have their own Q1 numbers to measure up against those broader UK 2025 trends.

Despite that optimism, there have been some less positive developments via GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index, which decreased four points to -23 in April 2025. In the detail was some good news – the ‘Major Purchase Index’ was down two points to -19, but that number is six points better than this month last year. However, the toll of continual Trump tariff intrigue (something the US bike trade is currently grappling with on the front lines) and the cost increases of the new financial year were seen to have had their effect.

The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB) is powered by NIM.