CI.N Podcast: Using data to predict 2023 with Shift’s Chief Strategy Officer Doug Baker

CyclingIndustry.News kicks off the 2023 podcast season with a ‘market analysis’ special edition, featuring Shift Active Media Chief Strategy Officer (and resident data guru) Doug Baker.

Following on from the CI.N feature of Shift’s ‘What’s Next – A Look Ahead – Sales, Research, and Participation’, since the first whitepaper Baker and his team have updated the search data, and, most importantly, they’ve now added in the results from our survey of well over 1k cyclists from the Rider Research Hub.

Podcast host Sean Lally introduces CI.N 2023 Market Data report findings into the conversation, providing listeners with a blend of retailer insights combined with brand and market data based analysis.

• Keen to explore the CI.N 2023 Market Data report in detail? Contact frazer@cyclingindustry.news
• For access to the second instalment of Shift’s “What’s Next?” series, click here.

Baker outlines the methodology of Shift’s research and details some of the findings that came out of the studies.

Pointing out that many indicators, like those recorded by the OECD, illustrate how wider markets are struggling, there is (believe it or not) good news out there for the cycling industry. Baker says: “The good news is that there are probably more riders than ever and they are just as, if not more so than ever, committed to riding. The flip side is a dropping off in interest in making immediate purchases, due in part to a lot of then having made significant purchases in recent times.”

Reasons to be cheerful

On the CI.N podcast, Baker says: “Our report covers the UK, EU and US and found that over half of respondents plan to cycle more this year, with 70% planning to take part in a cycling event this year. Intentions don’t always bear out, but the intent is there so that’s really promising.

“Road demand may be softening but that might be because of the rise of gravel. Gravel is steady and up on 2019 numbers. EBikes is the big success story, bringing in new audiences, and the US is looking particularly resilient – which is obviously great news for global businesses.”

There’s further good news for those serving the high end of the market: “That’s looking a lot more insulated than the mid and particularly entry level… The demand for high end product has not necessarily been matched due to those supply chain issues.”

There’s some drilling down into the detail too, not least that road as a category is down, perhaps even on 2019 numbers. Baker adds: “Road is down by about the same amount that gravel is up, so is gravel cannibalising road? MTB is slightly down too, but not like road. Those upgrade categories – wheels, components – look less likely to see purchase this year compare to last year.

“Entry level and causal rider and kids bikes are a real challenge/ on the positive side we’ve seen lots of people come into the market recently.”

If you want to hear more on bikes and data (and who doesn’t?), tune in below, or hit play in the homepage’s right hand column. Alternatively, to tune in to prior episodes with guests such as Rachael Burnside, Jay Townley and Adam Tranter, head here.