COMMENT: 1 in 6 drivers looking to replace their vehicle this year, despite downturn

This week’s news that the UK officially fell into recession in 2023 won’t be too much of a shock, but despite the gloomy short term outlook, one in six car drivers will be looking to replace their car this year… with another car, but stick with us on this.

According to AA Car Finance statistics, most drivers – three in five (61%) – will use cash to make the purchase, while a sixth (16%) will turn to finance. 8% will use a personal loan and 6% will lease their next car.

In the cycling industry there is probably some reluctance to classify bicycles as vehicles, but without opening that particular can of worms here, there’s surely some kind of chance for the market to capture a portion of those drivers looking to replace their car and put an eBike or cargo bike under their nose instead.

Convincing drivers that an eCargo bike, for example, will probably do the same job as a second family car used to running local errands, like picking the kids up from nursery or the weekly shop from Aldi, is another matter. That likely has a lot to do with your locality: It’s probably an easier sell in London, where running a car can be expensive and there is a growing network of segregated cycle lanes, than in a town where there’s no ULEZ or any half decent provision for bikes.

These car stats come from a finance company obviously making a plug for its own services, but it mentions leasing taking a small, yet significant part of the ‘car purchasing in 2024’ poll. So that seems an indication that leasing can be beneficial for the cycle market. Likewise a re-examination of financing options and marketing material in-store and online seems sensible, particularly in these challenging times.

The AA Finance poll doesn’t dwell on what those consumers will be looking to do with their new vehicles, but the UK government’s 2022 National Travel Survey sheds some light: The most common purpose for a trip by car was leisure (31% of trips in 2022), followed by shopping (20%), commuting (16%) and other (12%).

That seems illuminating – commuter bikes are a category of their own, but when was the last time we talked about bikes for shopping? Well, we have a few with baskets on them… Yet shopping trips outnumber commuter trips for drivers, so perhaps there’s an opportunity to realign the approach of the cycle market with the reality of consumers’ needs. And is it a shock that females of all ages made more car trips than males in 2022? If cycling really aims to convert more motorists to cyclists, then it needs to focus on who its audience is.

The UK’s core cycle market is, and will likely be for the foreseeable, leisure and sports-orientated cyclists. With a strong showing at the Paris 2024 Olympics we may well see a nice lift in interest and growth for this category of consumer. But that’s a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Team GB. It is in other categories where there is space to grow the market but if we’re really hoping to make gains there we are going to have to talk about why people get into their cars in the first place. Not just because many feel it is safer than a bike, but because it seems the best option to go to the shops, or maybe you never see anyone like you riding a bike. There’s a lot to grapple with and likely not a lot of low hanging fruit, but the opportunity remains there while we work out how best and when to approach it.

Meanwhile, a large percentage of the general public will be utilising one of the many different ways available to buy a car in 2024.