Black Friday may fall flat as consumers assess spend and get savvy

Fresh research into consumer spending habits has forecast that the upcoming Black Friday sales period is likely to fall flat this year, with consumer both holding back cash and growing wise to some of the sales tactics deployed at this time of year.

Commissioned by HotUKDeals in partnership with Retail Economics, the survey of over 2,000 UK shoppers put the predicted sales at 15% down on 2021’s £2 billion taking, with nearly half expecting to reduce their spend if they do participate.

A separate piece of research by marketing agency Wunderman Thompson further predicts a spend of up to 50% less than usual. In this study the per consumer expenditure is predicted to fall back from around £168 registered in 2021, backwards to the 2020 figure of £86. Will this affect the independent store? Perhaps not. The research had near two thirds expecting to make their purchases via online behemoths like Amazon as a first port of call.

It has previously been found that 90% of Black Friday deals were either the same price, or cheaper at some stage in the prior six months, according to consumer champion Which? Consumers have in fact come to expect there to be discounts much of the year and are thus becoming desensitized to the sales.

Previously, Klarna research found that consumers aren’t all in agreement that discounts are beneficial either, with 38% stating that such practice makes brands look cheap and unfashionable. 25% even go as far to say that they will be less likely to shop with a retailer who constantly displays sale banners. Furthermore, 28% actively avoid the stress of sales.

Four in ten are expected to participate all the same, according to the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, but over half of consumers are growing distrustful of the sales. Young people, it is said, are more trusting of the mark downs, while those over 55 are most skeptical that the advertised prices do in fact present a deal. Eight in ten now plan to research pricing pre-event, according to the CCPC.

Online – all is not what is seems

Coming at a time when discounts are again becoming rife in the bike industry anyway, consumers are seemingly becoming desensitized to the deals, which sometimes are not all that they seem.

There is in fact a trend for bots to disrupt the online side of the sales, generating fake site traffic and thus driving up advertising budgets for those paying to list deals. Last year it was estimated that 35.7% of traffic on Black Friday was bots and fake users.

If an ad is served to a bot or fake user, the budget is essentially wasted. As a result CHEQ, a cyber security firm, predicts that retailers selling online will waste $386 million on Black Friday alone this year.

“To drain budgets, skew metrics, and commit malicious acts, bots and fake users very frequently tend to click on advertisements they encounter online. This can be done on paid search platforms, advertisements on social media networks, and other forms of display and text ads,” CHEQ said on the expected 46 million false users expected.

This bot traffic has further complications for retailers. Those that deal seek in order to resell later can often hold up inventory in baskets while genuine users miss out on stock. As a result it is estimated that $3.3 billion is lost down to bots holding then abandoning carts.