Is London on the cusp of European levels of walking and cycling?

Levels of cycling and walking in London reached 42% of all journeys in 2021, with record usage of London cycle hire schemes, both official and hosted, plus rapid people-friendly changes to hundreds of kilometres of streets, including new and improved cycle lanes – but is the capital on the cusp of European levels of active travel?

According to Transport for London (TfL’s) latest Travel in London report, during the pandemic cycling and walking were up to 46.4% of all trips in the city in April-June 2020, compared with 27.4% in 2019. Since the pandemic active travel levels remained at more than one third of all trips, to July-September 2021, when the latest figures exist.

Are we reaching European levels of cycling, though? In a word, no. Walking represents the lion’s share of those trips, reaching a peak of 60% of all trips made by Londoners during the first quarter of 2021, according to the London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS), and more than 40% of all trips during the pandemic, compared to 35% before. Meanwhile cycling trips rose to a rather modest 3.4% of all trips, up from a tiny 2.3% pre-pandemic.

Simon Munk of the London Cycling Campaign, points out this cycling and walking growth is against a backdrop of huge decreases in overall journeys. Munk told CIN: “The short answer is no, we’re not reaching EU levels of active travel, and when you see the difference in pace and boldness between even previously car dominated cities such as Paris and London, the gap is not closing fast enough.”

Pre-pandemic, cycling was 49% of trips in Copenhagen, Europe’s top cycling city, and 35% in Amsterdam. However, even against Berlin’s 13%, Vienna’s 7% and Dublin’s 10%, London’s sub-4% high water mark looks rather puny.

The latest Travel in London report notes ‘walking and cycling [were] uniquely placed to cater for travel demand during periods of restrictions’, including more local trips and fewer long commutes. Data from limited cycle counters around the city showed huge growth in weekend cycling – to a peak of 240% of pre-pandemic levels in March 2021 – with weekday cycling levels close to pre-pandemic levels while overall commuting trips were vastly reduced. This, along with motor vehicle levels, is a pattern that’s persisted.

According to TfL, 120km of additional cycle lanes have been added in the capital since the start of the pandemic, with “hundreds of miles of quieter residential roads in Low Traffic Neighbourhoods” and over 300 school streets.

However, Munk adds, pace in delivering schemes has slowed since the rapid initial rollout of Streetspace, the emergency cycling and walking infrastructure programme. “We saw decades worth of progress on active travel in just six months at the start of the pandemic, but since then there has been a large pause in many boroughs and indeed rolling back of too many schemes just at the point we needed to push forward,” says Munk.

Meanwhile, stop-start funding from government leaves TfL with anything from seven week to six-month last-minute funding settlements, leaving staff focused on budgets – time they could otherwise spend on planning and delivering improvements on the ground.

Munk points out London is not on target to meet motor traffic kilometre reductions of 27% by 2030, partly because of a funding shortfall for alternatives, but also due to “a lack of political bravery and coherence” from the mayor, TfL and the boroughs.

He says: “If Sadiq is to help London unlock European levels of active travel, overall he needs a settlement from government and fast, but he also needs to work out a more coherent plan for use of London’s streets that likely sees big, bold changes to streets to deliver on active travel and public transport – and that will mean hard decisions around how much to restrict private motor traffic that EU politicians seem to find easier to make”.

Longer-term, more local lifestyles that favour active travel will help drive growth, post-pandemic. Around half of Londoners are now able to work from home all of the week, compared with less than 5% pre-pandemic. Between July 2020 and June 2021 at least 80% of people were working from home some or all of the time, compared with less than 50% pre-pandemic.

The Transport in London report adds a “‘doughnut’ pattern established during the pandemic, of higher relative levels of travel in outer and inner London, with large-scale shortfalls in the central area… has generally been positive for ‘local living’ and for active travel modes, for example leisure-related walks and cycling of home workers.” While city centre footfall has increased it is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Will Norman, London’s Walking & Cycling Commissioner, said: “We’ve seen a huge boom in walking and cycling throughout the pandemic as people followed Government advice to stay at home, and clearly enjoyed making shorter journeys around their local areas by foot and bike.

“To sustain this growth, we’ve been working with councils across the capital to transform more and more of our roads, making them safer and more welcoming for people walking and cycling.

“We’re committed to continuing this rapid progress, enabling more Londoners to switch their trips from private cars to cleaner, greener and healthier modes of travel like walking and cycling. However, in order to keep this progress up, further investment in walking and cycling infrastructure is essential. Without it, we risk undoing our work to drive down emissions and clean up London’s filthy air, and replacing one public health crisis with another”.

Cycling has at least some chance of scooping up lost interest in public transport forms as fares continue to soar, with some commuters weighing up the cost of a bike versus spiralling season passes. The average fare increase at present will be 4.8%, though rises have come steadily with each passing year, compounding the financial burden on public transport users.