The bike industry in 25/26: searching for the next gear amid cautious growth

Friday, 2 January 2026 Werner Müller-Schell

Three years into the industry downturn, the global bike sector is still searching for its next gear. That is all the more true as excess inventory, shifting tariffs and growing uncertainty around major trade shows are forcing brands and suppliers towards an even more cautious, efficiency-driven form of growth. Werner Müller-Schell analyses the situation with some international industry pundits…

Anyone who has ever watched the Tour de France will know that the decisive moments do not always come on the big climbs or at the finish line. Sometimes the race blows apart on a flat, featureless road when a strong side wind hits the riders. On TV, it looks almost uneventful: the main group – the peloton – stretches into a long, thin line, shoulders hunched as everyone leans into the gusts. There are no big attacks, no obvious drama, just a steady trickle of riders sliding off the back as the crosswind saps their strength. Three years into its economic downturn, the global bike industry looks increasingly like that stretched-out peloton in the wind. The explosive accelerations of the pandemic years are a fading memory; the sense now is of survival riding, of holding position while invisible pressures drag on the bunch. Looking back over 2025 and into 2026 makes one thing painfully clear: this is still a fight to stay, not yet a moment to lift the pace and chase the next breakaway.

Indeed, the long-promised “light at the end of the tunnel” has only appeared in fragments. Inventory remains elevated, forcing ongoing discounting and keeping margins under pressure just as financing costs have risen. Uncertainties around new and proposed tariffs, debates over how electrically power assisted cycles (EPACs) should be classified and regulated, labour conditions in key hubs such as Taiwan and the weakening pull of traditional trade shows have all made long term planning harder and cooled industry sentiment. At the same time, consumer confidence in many markets remains fragile, shaped by cost-of-living concerns and wider anxiety over geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Yet there are pockets of opportunity: eBikes continue to gain popularity in many regions, service revenues have become a more reliable pillar for dealers, and leasing, refurbishment and other circular models are starting to scale. Export revivals in manufacturing hubs like Bangladesh and Cambodia, plus steady growth in niche categories such as kids’ bikes and safety technology, point to a painful but potentially healthy rebalancing rather than collapse.

To industry observers such as cycling journalist Laurens van Rooijen, the moment is defined by three pressure points: inventory levels that are “still too high” with discounting eating into margins, depleted reserves after three and a half years of weak business and higher interest rates, and consumer sentiment that “is still not back up” amid cost-of-living pressures, conflicts and tariff uncertainty. Spanish industry expert Cristóbal Pérez sees the sector caught in “a hard impasse between an artificial blooming and an unprecedentedly difficult situation”, where discount-led sell-through pushes businesses towards financial strain even though ridership remains on an upward trend. From Taipei, Anchor Asia CEO Elisa Chiu describes 2025 as “another challenging year” of “further adjustment under multiple pressures”, from the CBP case and fast-rising labour-compliance expectations to the prospect of 50% US tariffs and the Eurobike rift, all of which force companies to rethink sourcing and exhibition strategies. Yet Taiwan-based consultant and Conductor co-founder Jonathan Davies notes “a real sense of optimism for 2026” among leaner brands that have cut costs, simplified ranges and are once again planning sensible revenue growth and focused product and marketing pushes rather than chasing another sugar-rush boom.

The stats

While industry insiders describe the mood, the hard numbers from the latest full-year data show how drawn out the adjustment has become. There are, as yet, no consolidated market figures for 2025, but the 2024 statistics and early 2025 export data nonetheless offer a clear snapshot of the most recent developments. Across Europe, 2024 brought another year of decline – but a slower one – with most major markets seeing unit sales fall as over stock and discounting pulled down average selling prices and turnover. Germany, the continent’s bellwether, sets the tone. After a 13% drop in 2023, total deliveries fell a further 3.8% in 2024, with eBikes down 2.4%, yet growing to 53.3% market share. Austria (-6.1% in units), Switzerland (13.6%), France (-12.3%), Spain (nearly -10%), the Netherlands (-6.6%), Belgium (-4.7%) and the UK (-2%) also contracted, with eBike shares generally rising across the board. On the supply side, Taiwan’s export data underline that the correction is still underway: between January and July 2025, global eBike exports fell 11.6% in volume, while traditional bicycle ship mentsdropped 22.1%.

Recent earnings reports from listed industry heavyweights do little to suggest an imminent upswing. Giant Group recently reported that net revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was down 16.9% year-on-year, with third-quarter revenue almost 25% lower than a year earlier, even though gross margins improved as inventory provisions were unwound and own-brand promotions took effect. Component giant Shimano tells a similar story in reverse: bicycle sales for the first nine months of 2025 were up 4.9%, but operating income fell 27% as elevated distributor inventories in Europe and China, soft demand in North America and cautious consumers in China and Japan squeezed profitability. Canyon, one of Europe’s best-known direct-to consumer brands, saw its first-half 2025 sales slip by 5% and EBITDA fall by around 30%. And at the component level, Fox Factory’s bicycle-focused Specialty Sports Group recorded an 11.2% revenue drop in the third quarter.

Amid the gloom, a handful of results and deals show where momentum is still real rather than rhetorical. Dresden-based online retailer Bike24 lifted sales by 32% year-on-year between July and September, with revenues for the first nine months of 2025 up 26%, driven by broad-based growth across Europe and particularly strong trading in its core DACH region. Kids’ bikes specialist Woom reported the best half-year in its history, with first-half revenues up more than 40% year-on year and fuelled by double-digit growth in all core markets. In the circular space, Upway’s recent $60 million funding round and plans for new refurbishment centres in the US signal investor confidence in refurbishment as a scalable model. Protection and tech brands are also quietly advancing, with Leatt, Garmin’s fitness division and MIPS all posting double digit growth. At the same time, export revivals in Cambodia and Bangladesh hint at a broader geographic rebalancing of production. Taken together, these bright spots show that parts of the bunch are still moving up through the gears – but they also underline how stretched and divided the “bicycle industry peloton” has become, with many companies still fighting simply not to be dropped.

For the majority still battling not to be dropped, that has meant a shift from chasing growth to riding as lean and efficiently as possible, cutting back and recalibrating just to hold position. Industry expert Laurens van Rooijen sees a clear pattern of “restructuring and cost cutting: back to a lean business after the gold rush of the pandemic, trim off some lard,” noting that he still sees “a lot more people losing their jobs in the bicycle industry than taking on new ones”. At the product level, he observes brands “reduce the number of SKUs and models, for easier and more flexible planning and better conditions when purchasing”, with less top-spec for MY26 as companies try to bring retail prices down. On the capital side, Elisa Chiu describes an “investment landscape that has become highly polarised,” with most M&A driven by “industry reshuffling following bankruptcies or restructurings”. And from a branding perspective, Jonathan Davies sees consumer-facing Asian brands “keen to reach further into Europe”, reinvigorating image, messaging and marketing to better fit the market – even if many “still need to do a lot to overcome the perceptions of Asian brands or simply gain brand awareness.”

For those still cutting back and recalibrating just to hold position, the bigger worry is that the wind could yet pick up again. One obvious risk is policy – and nowhere is that fragility more visible than in tariff policy, where the possibility of new or sharply higher duties on bikes and eBikes, combined with an unpredictable approach to trade, leaves brands and suppliers guessing which cost assumptions will still hold by the time a model actually reaches the shop floor. In Europe, the growing debate over how EPACs should be classified and regulated hangs over long-term product planning. Add in due-diligence rules and CBP-style enforcement on labour standards in Asian supply hubs, and many finance and sourcing teams are spending as much time modelling regulatory scenarios as they are forecasting demand. In a stretched peloton, that means burning mental and managerial energy simply to avoid being caught out by the next policy gust.

Another effect of all this uncertainty is that even the industry’s traditional landmarks have started to wobble. Eurobike 2025 faced a drop of around 10% in visitor numbers compared with 2024, underlining difficulties that culminated in the recent withdrawal of German trade associations ZIV and Zukunft Fahrrad, as well as key players such as Bosch eBike Systems from the 2026 edition – a development that hints at a further loss of significance for next year. In Asia, Taichung Bike Week in September was also noticeably quieter, suggesting that companies are more selective and cautious than ever about where they commit time and budgets. As Elisa Chiu puts it, “almost every trade show — not only in Asia but globally — is facing challenges,” and it is not just the industry downturn but a changing world that is forcing a rethink of platforms, cost structures and cross-industry formats. “We now need different kinds of platforms, information flows, cost structures, formats, cross-industry collaborations, and start-up engagement,” she summarises.

Expert prescriptions

Looking beyond 2025, the same voices that describe today’s stretched-out peloton also sketch what it might take to ride into a more stable 2026. For Laurens van Rooijen, it starts with basics: “identify real-world needs and build products that cover those needs,” match production to “what the market can absorb – when in doubt better produce not enough than way too much,” and “know what you do well and focus on that. Furthermore, build lasting partnerships with suppliers, dealers and consumers.” Cristóbal Pérez is blunt that, in the short term, “being pragmatic: surviving means succeeding,” but insists the industry must “bring in new trends as future options” and remember that “invoicing should not always be understood as a sign of health or success” when the real task is to “provide value, service, and the right product and go all out to establish a long-term relationship.” For Anchor Asia CEO Elisa Chiu, a simple litmus test will do: “If in 2026 all key stakeholders are still raising their glasses together at Eurobike, and later riding side by side in Taiwan for the next Ascent by Anchor event, I’d say the industry will be doing just fine.”

Taken together, these expert prescriptions and scattered bright spots point to an industry that is battered but not broken. For now, the bunch is still strung out in the crosswind, shoulders low, everyone watching the wheel in front rather than the finish line. But this is not a race that has blown apart beyond repair. Inventories are slowly normalising, new business models are taking shape, and the riders who have learned to conserve energy – by focusing on real-world needs, tighter ranges and stronger relationships – are still very much in the game. If 2023 to 2025 were the years of simply hanging on, 2026 offers the chance to move back into the shelter and think again about where to attack. The road may still be long and exposed, but the peloton is learning how to ride it together.

Werner Müller-Schell went into more depth with all four international cycling industry observers, which you can read in CIN’s latest digital issue:

More detail and analysis with…

And there’s yet more 2025 analysis (more UK industry centric) within the same digital issue.

Want to have your say? If you’re a UK-based independent bike shop or workshop, you can fill out our new Market Data survey to provide your take on the state of the industry.