UK bike market decline slows, BA predicts cycling industry growth in 2025

The golden vision of a return to cycling industry growth has been predicted for 2025 after a tumultuous set of years for the market. The Bicycle Association (BA) has made the forecast after revealing the market decline slowed notably in 2024.

The BA’s annual members-only conference, taking place this week, will showcase its latest data gleaned from the market. That data revealed the long post-Covid downturn decline continued in 2024 – the market was down -2% in sales compared with 2023 – but crucially that marked an easing of decline rate. Market performance flattened in H2 compared with a more brutal H1.

P&A and services bolster market while bikes decline

Beneath the headline numbers, the BA stats revealed confirmation of a widely held industry belief – that PAC (products, accessories and clothing aka P&A) and services performed far better than bike sales, proving focus on workshops was a benefit during less than perfect trading conditions. PAC volumes in in 2024 may have fallen -2%, but value increased +3% in particular thanks for turbo trainers and indoor cycling. Services saw volumes up 7% and value up 5%, with riders opting to maintain and repair bikes over new purchases.

Mechanical (eg non-electric) bikes saw volumes down -4%, with total market estimates at 1.45 million units in 2024 – a new low point for the 21st Century. eBike volumes also fell -5% in the face of average selling prices plummeting and heavy discounting. Overall market volumes dropped to estimated 146,000 units – a mere 9% of overall bike units (a paltry percentage compared with other territories).

…but big bucks bikes build

Nuance in the stats revealed that higher priced road and mountain bikes showed year-on-year growth, bucking the overall bike trend for 2024.

The BA’s press statement also drew on stats gathered elsewhere, noting that bike journey numbers were down on 2019 (but perhaps missed that the long term – 10 year – picture is one of significant growth). The BA also noted bike share performed strongly, as evidenced in recent TfL stats.

While the PR doesn’t get into this any further, there’s perhaps a point worth drawing out again here that the UK’s thirst for cycling does not necessarily mirror the performance of the cycling market – two different things, in fact.

Will someone think about the kids?

Industry anxiety around the children’s cycling market was not hugely eased by 2024. Sport England stats noted that kids cycling participation stabilised with 21% aged 5-16 riding a bike, however levels are still 6% points lower than 2018-2019 and sales fell again last years, now around a third less than pre-Covid levels. Clearly that represents an existential challenge for the cycling industry, however recent British Cycling stats pointed out that the ability to ride a bike among children remains relatively high. Sign of another disconnect between the market and what is going on at street level in the UK? Many parents will surely turn to the likes of Facebook Marketplace in search of bikes for fast-growing children, while the likes of Isla Bikes do a roaring trade in the second hand market (particularly as there are no longer any new ones being made).

The (market) future

Whilst the BA expects the market to remain challenging in 2025, with the backdrop of a difficult macroeconomic climate, it predicts the long downturn will gradually bottom out over the coming months with forecasted volume growth in bike and PAC of 2% and 3% in services in 2025. eBikes volumes however are expected to fall a further 1%.

Simon Irons, Bicycle Association Data & Insights Director, said: “This report is a challenging read. The post-Covid overstocking, and associated heavy discounting levels in the market, persist and our industry still has a real challenge to restore margins and increase value. The continued decline in kids’ cycling participation and kids’ bike sales is particularly concerning, given these are our cyclists of the future.”