Mintel UK bike market prediction expects £1 billion in 2024

2024 will see a change in fortunes for the UK bike market, with growth in eBikes, second hand bicycles and numbers of women cycling, according to the latest UK bike market prediction from Mintel.

The new research expects new bicycle sales to climb 12% in 2024, with Brits set to buy 2.1 million bikes. That rise comes, of course, after significant falls in previous years – UK bicycle sales were down 11% to 1.9 million bikes. That’s down 42% from the record high of 2020 (3.3 million bikes).

Value sales are set to pick up too – new bike sales are projected to rise 15% to just shy of £1 billion (£998 million) in 2024. There was a 15% fall in annual sales to reach £868 million in 2023 compared to the year before – there’s been a gradual decline in annual bike sales since 2020.

The prediction that bike sales will rise this year may cause some debate in the trade, with high inventory levels and consumer spending power combining to limit the potential of the market, which has recently seen high profile administrations, redundancies, buy outs, rescue loans and other methods to stay in business during very difficult market conditions. The Bicycle Association’s mid-year report found that a fall in volume of cycle sales in the first half of 2023 – mechanical bikes were down 8% while eBikes were down 13%.

Mintel also sees the UK’s eBike market picking up, with electric assist bicycles the most popular type of bike cyclists plan to buy over the next 12 months. Nearly a fifth (19%) of those who plan to purchase a bicycle plan to buy an eBike. Numbers that may not be in line with the stronger eBike markets like Germany, where eBike unit sales top ‘normal’ bikes.

In news that seems particularly interesting following this week’s shocking report from the LCC on the experiences of women cycling in the London, Mintel’s report said there are notable signs of interest in cycling among women aged 16-64 years old, peaking at just over 40% among women under 45, but also high among 45-64 at 34%.

Half of current cyclists and potential cyclists say they are more likely to consider buying a second hand bicycle compared to a year ago, representing – arguably – a threat to new bike sales.

Mintel’s Category Director, Leisure Research, Mintel Reports, picks up the point: “Rising living costs have severely impacted demand for new bikes and e-bikes, which had already been suffering due to COVID-19 related supply-side issues. A recovery in demand is now underway. In the near-term, easing inflation and wage growth are helping to improve consumer confidence while heavy discounting by retailers is helping to boost sales. The cost of living is also encouraging people to take to two wheels to get around, as around a third (34%) of Brits are cycling more compared to a year ago to reduce spending on petrol/public transport. Looking further ahead, continued investment and development in the country’s cycling infrastructure, and a rising focus on sustainable travel will help to further lift demand.

“But the growing second-hand market, with the likes of Halfords now actively involved, is now a threat to new bike sales growth. Half (49%) of Brits who currently ride a bicycle or would consider riding one in the future agree that they are more likely to consider buying a second-hand bicycle compared to a year ago.”

Data and insights into the UK cycle market are improving, with CIN’s own Market Data effort, the BA-led report and others like Mintel’s UK bike market prediction and reports.